Probability versus confidence
Two different numbers: how likely, and how much the evidence can be trusted.
Probability answers 'how machine-like do these measurements look?'. Confidence answers 'how much should you rely on that estimate for this particular file?'. They move independently, and conflating them is the most common way detection tools mislead people.
A 40-second lossless upload with strong segment agreement can produce a 62% probability at high confidence. A 12-second 96 kbps clip can produce 84% at low confidence. The second number looks more alarming and means less.
How this tool uses it
Both are always shown. Where confidence is too low to support any claim, the outcome is labelled inconclusive rather than being reported as a score.
What else produces the same reading
- Short clips inflate apparent certainty while removing the evidence behind it.
Questions
Neither, alone. Use the probability to decide whether to investigate further and the confidence to decide how seriously to take it. Only provenance evidence justifies acting as though the question is settled.